BELEM(BRAZIL): In Belém, the tropical rain drifts in from the river and settles over a city of fishing boats and mango trees. The quiet streets of the city, known in Brazil as the Amazon’s capital, will over the next two weeks be a microcosm of the world as nearly 200 national delegations arrive for COP30, the UN’s 30th climate conference. The Amazon’s gateway city will once again find itself at the centre of a global reckoning.

The UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2025 warns that planet-warming greenhouse gases are still rising, with global emissions 7% higher than in 2020. Despite countless promises, the world’s heating trajectory remains unchanged. “Current policies will reduce projected 2030 emissions by only 2% compared with last year’s estimates,” says the UN Environment Programme. “The path to a liveable future gets steeper by the day,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres has reminded governments. “But this is no reason to surrender. It’s a reason to step up and speed up.”

Finance, the other side of the climate equation, looks equally fragile. The Baku-to-Belém Roadmap, unveiled ahead of the summit, sets a target of $1.3 trillion a year in global climate funding by 2035, with $300 billion to be channelled from wealthy nations to poorer countries. Yet, actual flows are scarcely a tenth of what is required. That shortfall, more than any speech or declaration, will shape the outcome of COP30.

A decade after the Paris Agreement was adopted, implementation continues to lag. The UN’s 2025 report on national climate plans shows most countries have updated their commitments, but the combined effect still points to higher emissions by 2030, about 9% above 2010 levels. The State of Climate Action 2025 finds that none of the key sectors such as energy, transport, industry and agriculture is cutting emissions fast enough to bend the global curve.

For developing economies, progress depends on money that has not arrived. The $100-billion annual pledge, first made in 2009, was fulfilled only in 2023. India’s case shows the scale of the challenge. According to a CEEW (Council on Energy, Environment and Water) study, achieving net-zero emissions by 2070 would require around $10 trillion in investment. Without low-cost international finance, the transition could stall long before it gathers pace.