TORONTO—Despite Premier Doug Ford’s explicit commitment to fiscal policy reforms in the province, Ontario has failed to constrain the growth in overall spending, achieve balanced budgets consistently, or reduce provincial debt and lower tax rates, according to a new study published by the Fraser Institute, an independent, non-partisan Canadian public policy think-tank.

“Premier Ford made many early campaign promises of structural policy reform, but the government’s actual fiscal outcomes, however, have been increased spending, persistent deficits, and an absence of any meaningful tax reductions,” said Ben Eisen, senior fellow at the Fraser Institute and co-author of the study.

Ford vs. Ford: Fiscal Rhetoric vs. Outcomes in Ontario under Doug Ford examines 2017/18 when Ford took office through to 2024/25 and concludes that the province has consistently operated in deficit with only one surplus (2021/22) despite promises to balance the budget.

The study also finds Ford has failed to enact any meaningful tax reductions. Specifically, his government has not delivered on early commitments to reduce personal or corporate statutory income tax rates.

While the provincial debt relative to the size of the economy (i.e. GDP) has declined slightly (3.5 percentage points), the decline is a result of modest economic growth rather than the elimination of government deficits and borrowing. Moreover, most of this limited progress is forecast to be undone over the next three years.

“During his victorious 2018 campaign, and in his early years as premier, Doug Ford positioned himself as an ambitious fiscal reformer, however a review of fiscal outcomes under his leadership shows increased spending, nearly continuous deficits, and the continuation of the status quo on key tax rates,” said Eisen.

Fraser Institute——Bio and Archives

The Fraser Institute is an independent Canadian public policy research and educational organization with offices in Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto, and Montreal and ties to a global network of 86 think-tanks. Its mission is to measure, study, and communicate the impact of competitive markets and government intervention on the welfare of individuals. To protect the Institute’s independence, it does not accept grants from governments or contracts for research. Visit fraserinstitute.org.

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