The prospect of a direct military confrontation between the United States and Venezuela is becoming more tangible as the military buildup intensifies.

With the arrival of the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group joining the deployment, the military stakes in the Caribbean have been dramatically intensified.

As of November 2025, the escalating tensions between the United States and the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela demand a clear-eyed analysis that moves beyond the official justifications presented by Washington. Framing of Venezuela’s government as a “cartel” or “narco-state” is part of US hybrid infowar tactic to delegitimize sovereign governments that resist US hegemony. The US objective is to topple the government of Nicolás Maduro and reassert control over Venezuela’s vast natural resources, while creating a coalition of the willing with local states of the LAC region willing to cooperate with the campaign against Venezuela.

War in the Caribbean

The Pentagon announced in November the start of Operation Southern Spear, a mission led by the US Southern Command to combat drug cartels but that really will target Venezuela. Alexander Stepanov, a Russian expert, warned in a TASS interview recently that the US’s Operation Southern Spear may backfire, stating that “the spring cannot be compressed endlessly“ regarding pressure on Latin American countries. Back in 2015, President Barack Obama got the ball rolling when he declared Venezuela an “extraordinary threat” to the United States and imposed the first sanctions, which have since multiplied to number in the hundreds, which evolved into the current deployment by the Trump administration.

Russia had said it will work to fulfill its obligations that were mutually stipulated in an agreement with Venezuela where they bring their relationship into a strategic partnership level. On November 11 Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in an interview, TASS reported that Caracas had not asked Moscow for military assistance or to deploy Russian weapons in Venezuela,

“[…] our relations with Venezuela, which is a friendly country and a strategic comprehensive partner, which we recently signed an agreement on […] But, of course, taking into account geography“.

Meaning neither Russia or China can help Venezuela inside its borders with troops they would provide crucial intelligence, satellite data, repair of vehicles and spare parts, cyber support, and economic aid to help to stabilize Venezuela.

Venezuela acquired about 20 Sukhoi fighter jets from the Russian company in the 2000s, coupled with Russian-made helicopters, tanks, and portable missiles capable of destroying low-flying aircraft. Venezuela’s military possesses a formidable and multi-layered air defense network, anchored by the long-range Russian S-300VM system capable of engaging high-value targets like AWACS aircraft over 200 kilometers away. This is supported by mobile medium-range systems like the Buk-M2E and modernized S-125 Pechoras, which are difficult to locate and destroy due to their strategic mobility. The defense is further densified by an estimated 5,000 Russian Igla-S man-portable missiles and a fleet of advanced Sukhoi Su-30 fighter jets, which pose a credible threat to both aircraft and warships.

First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Defense Committee Alexei Zhuravlev was quoted in gazeta.ru stating that,

“Russian Su-30MK2 fighters are the backbone of the Venezuelan Air Force, making it one of the most powerful aviation powers in the region. The delivery of several S-300VM (Antey-2500) divisions significantly strengthened the country’s ability to cover important facilities from air attacks. According to the latest information, the Russian Pantsir-S1 and Buk-M2E systems were delivered to Caracas by transport Il-76 just the other day“.

The US military footprint in the region is too large for its stated goal of targeting the non-existent Soles cartel, and at the same time too small for a full-scale invasion and occupation of Venezuela making it very unlikely given current US forces. Even with the US military’s advantages in air supremacy, naval dominance and advanced technology as of mid November 2025 the US only has around 10,000 infantry thus lacking sufficient numbers to invade efficiently. Even though the US military presence is significant it is still just a rapid-reaction force and would require tens of thousands of additional troops and boots on the ground, hence a full-scale invasion would require a massive, months-long buildup akin to the 2003 Iraq War.

Scenarios for War

I offer a few scenarios on how any belligerence might shape out, it’s important to point out some of these scenarios could merge in practice. The first scenario would see a limited, high-impact campaign not to occupy, but to cripple Venezuelan defences and possibly eliminate and decapitate key personnel from the Bolivarian states government, including its president Nicolas Maduro himself with a decapitation strike. The objective would not be to conquer territory but to cripple Venezuela’s ability to project power and defend its airspace.

US air power would concentrate on destroying Venezuelan air defenses, Air Force jets on the ground, and key communication and radar hubs, to later take over Venezuelan air space. Neutralizing the Venezuelan Air Force using F-35s and carrier-based F/A-18s, the US would quickly establish air superiority by destroying fighter jets on the ground and in the air. Advanced long-range missiles would target air defense systems, command and control centers, and key airfields. US destroyers and submarines would target Venezuela’s primary naval assets, including its frigates, patrol vessels, and submarines, largely confining them to port or destroying them outright.

Precision strikes would target the national electrical grid in a shock and awe style designed to plunge the country into darkness and halt the last streams of revenue, creating widespread public despair and allowing special forces and pro-US saboteur forces to inflict additional damage in the darkness. The US naval blockade could halt all maritime traffic to and from Venezuela, cutting off fuel, food, and medical imports meant to strangle the economy physically in an act of collective punishment that would cause a severe humanitarian catastrophe.

In the second scenario as an initial action the US would use an air and naval campaign to degrade Venezuelan military power ahead of any move to land troops via an amphibious landing or signaling local pro US saboteurs and forces already in Venezuela or in the borders. It could include covert and special operations, as most likely US strategy would be to avoid a large-scale conventional invasion, instead using its forces to enable an internal takeover aided by local pro uses cells already within Venezuela to spring up into action when told. For instance, Venezuelan authorities already arrested individuals allegedly linked to the CIA, who were reportedly involved in a plan to attack a US military ship in a Trinidad and Tobago port to blame Venezuela and justify aggression.

A third scenario could involve creating a No-Fly Zone against the Venezuelan government while offering support for insurgents / mercenaries forces coming from the borders or already in Venezuela, directly arming and funding a proxy force, providing it with air cover to create a safe corridor for these covert ground forces, where this US equipped mercenary army could be based and declared the legitimate government by the Trump administration.

Venezuela cannot match the US thus its defense strategy is one of asymmetric resistance, designed to raise the cost of invasion to a level that is politically unacceptable for the United States. The Venezuelan state would integrate its conventional military with the mass popular militias, Milicias Bolivarianas, preparing for a total people’s defensive war. The guerrilla-style defense, which the government has termed “prolonged resistance“ and vaguely mentioned in state television broadcasts, would involve small military units in more than 280 locations.

Reportedly Venezuela has already deployed its 5,000 Russian-made Igla missiles, with military orders to disperse all units upon the first American attack. President Maduro confirmed this in an October broadcast, stating,

“Venezuela has no less than 5,000 Igla-S in key air defense positions to guarantee peace,” and that the portable missiles and their operators are deployed “even in the last mountain… of Venezuelan territory.“

Even rudimentary air defenses have proven effective in conflicts like Yemen, demonstrating that technologically superior forces can suffer losses against determined defenders.

Venezuela could also deploy swarms of low-cost drones — if they are provided by China, Russia or Iran — from hidden jungle bases after they fall back after the commencement of the US attack in order to overwhelm and disrupt enemy positions. These drones, difficult to detect under the dense canopy, would conduct surveillance to track troop movements and identify high-value targets. The doctrine would be to avoid the open field where US air power dominates and draw any ground forces into a protracted, bloody urban war in the dense, difficult terrain of cities while also digging in deep into the mountainous jungles for safety as they launch attacks against US forces that might have landed and possibly against US ships. Alternatively, modified with simple explosive payloads, they would become precision-guided munitions for ambushes on patrols and forward operating bases.

So by operating from vast, inaccessible mountain jungles, Venezuelan forces would create a wide area of denial, forcing a technologically superior adversary into a costly and exhausting counter-insurgency. Constantly harassing threats from the air would inflict steady casualties and erode the US morale and operational tempo. Thus, Venezuela’s realistic defense is to make this outcome so costly and destabilizing that powerful interests within the United States and its vassals would question the wisdom of the war.

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Miguel Santos García is a Puerto Rican writer and political analyst who mainly writes about the geopolitics of neocolonial conflicts and Hybrid Wars within the 4th Industrial Revolution, the ongoing New Cold War and the transition towards multipolarity. Visit his blog here.

Featured image is from the author

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