It was an October poll of registered voters, but it suggests what major gains Democratic candidates for governor must make to win the party's nomination for governor in the Aug. 17 primary — only six months away. The November election will be the first vote for a governor with no incumbent since 2010.

In November 2022, votes for governor in only 11 counties — and four regions of the state — made up 54% of the statewide vote total of 2.65 million. Fine-print details of the October Marquette University Law School poll show how little known six of the eight Democratic candidates for governor were known by voters in those four regions.

Two disclosures: First, the October 15-22 poll was conducted before two more Milwaukee County Democrats — former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes and former state Administration Secretary Joel Brennan — announced their runs for governor. Barnes announced on Dec. 2; Brennan, Dec. 12. And, it was conducted before Washington County Executive Josh Schoemann dropped out as a Republican candidate, leaving 7th District Congressman Tom Tiffany as the presumptive Republican nominee for governor in November.

Still, even with those caveats, the low October name ID numbers of the six Democrats in those four regions of the state are interesting.

Voters in five metropolitan Milwaukee counties (Milwaukee, Waukesha, Racine, Washington and Ozaukee) cast a total of 779,416 votes for governor, or 29% of the statewide total in 2022.

The October Marquette poll estimated these name IDs for the six Democrats in metropolitan Milwaukee: Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, 42%; Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, of Waukesha, 31%; state Rep. Francesca Hong, 27%; Missy Hughes, former CEO of the state Economic Development Corp., and State Sen. Kelda Roys, both 20%, and former state Rep. Brett Hulsey, 19%. Hong, Roys and Hulsey are from Madison.

Neither Crowley nor Rodriguez were known by more than 50% of their neighbors in Wisconsin's largest metropolitan area.

Dane County voters cast 301,033 votes for governor four years ago, or 11.3% of the statewide total. The Marquette University's fall poll of Dane County voters found that none of the six Democrats had name IDs higher than 30%: Rodriguez, 29%; Hong, 28%; Roys, 25%; Crowley and Hulsey, both 20%, and Hughes, 16%.

Voters in the northwest Wisconsin counties of Brown and Outagamie counties cast 200,307 votes for governor in 2022, 7.5% of the statewide total. The Marquette poll of registered voters in that region found that none of the six Democrats had name IDs of more than 20%: Rodriguez, 17%; Hong, 13%; Crowley, 12%; Hulsey and Roys, 10%, and Hughes, 9%.

Finally, the Marquette poll surveyed voters in northern and western Wisconsin. Voters in three of those counties — Marathon, La Crosse and Eau Claire — cast a total of 165,400 votes four years ago, or 6.1% of the statewide total.

Marquette's survey found that none of the six Democrats had name identification of more than 20% in that region: Crowley, Hong and Rodriguez, 17% each; Hughes, who is from Vernon County, 12%; Hulsey, 10%, and Roys, 9%.

Brennan and Barnes announced that they would also seek the Democratic nomination after the October poll, which suggested how open the race was for the party's nomination. Barnes was the party's November 2022 nominee for Senate, getting 48% of the vote against Republican Sen. Ron Johnson. A spokesman for Barnes' campaign for governor said other polls have identified him as the best known Democratic candidate, giving him an advantage in the six-month race to win the Aug. 17 primary.

Only Democratic voters will decide who wins the primary for governor. In the 10-candidate Democratic primary for governor in 2018, 48% of the statewide vote was cast in just four counties — Milwaukee, 21%; Dane, 19%, Waukesha, 5.1%, and Brown, 3.1%.

But, in the November 2022 election that gave Democratic Gov. Tony Evers and Rodriguez second terms, they won only three of the 11 counties — Milwaukee, Dane and La Crosse — of the four regions surveyed in the Marquette poll. Wisconsin's statewide elections are decided by independent voters.

Although Tiffany's endorsement by President Donald Trump forced Schoemann out of the race, Marquette's October poll also showed weakness in the statewide name ID of the Oneida County Republican.

Of registered voters surveyed in the four regions of the state, Tiffany's name ID was 60% in northern and western Wisconsin, which he has represented in Congress since May 2020. But his name ID was 36% in Dane County; 37% in metropolitan Milwaukee, and 27% in the Green Bay area.

Lots of numbers. What do they all mean? While one Democratic candidate must win enough support in six months to win the August primary, Tiffany has until November to make himself and his issues known in the state's urban areas.

[Editor's note: This story was updated to include a comment from Mandela Barnes' spokesperson. Also, the graphic was edited to delete potentially misleading statistics.] 

Steven Walters started covering the Capitol in 1988. Contact him at stevenscotwaltrs@gmail.com.